January 10, 2024

FOUNDER’S CORNER: BRAVE NEW WORLD

by Jeff R. Miller, CFA

We have been waiting for the long-predicted recession, soft landing, or whatever we want to call it. In the meantime, markets delivered a powerful rally in the fourth quarter which no one saw coming. Let’s all celebrate.

The Market is fond of reminding us that we cannot predict the future, even in the short run. It toys with the human desire to believe we are smarter than we are, constantly reminding us that the future is unknowable. This is why day-traders fail. There have been a number of predictions by the new kid on the block, Artificial Intelligence, which have been all over the map, predicting economic collapse, or a technology-driven boom.

I will continue to be optimistic and positive about the future. The alternative can be very depressing. The big picture is that humanity, outside of a few hot spots is healthier, better fed, and living longer than a hundred years ago. War, plague and pandemics have come and gone through history, we simply have not been reminded of it constantly

Adam’s commentary is spot on. Financial planning and appropriate investment management is a long-term plan, not panic and day-trading. It recognizes trend changes and opportunities, then adjusts accordingly.

Using a golf metaphor, play through!